Merci xxxx. Je suis pas sûr, mais je crois que ça fait un certain temps que l'on parle de l'indice PER de Shiller comme étant au-dessus des "normes" ? Si c'est le cas, mauvais outil de timing :p
Dans le but d'élargir les perspectives pour juger de l'état du marché US, je me permets de compléter en recopiant une info de la file du jour (merci de me dire si tu préfères que je déplace dans un nouveau sujet):
Un aspect qui semble important et qu'on n'aborde pas souvent sur Andlil est celui de la profondeur ("breadth" en anglais) du marché. Concernant donc la participation dans le bull market US
"My friend Ari Wald (Oppenheimer) has a great chart illustrating the comeback we’re seeing for the median stock in the index. FAANG is not nearly as aberrant as you might think – every secular bull market has its generals, the stocks for which a majority of the gains accrue to. Why should the 2013-2017 advance have been different? Of course, the dominance in the FAANG components is still raging on, but this is not to the detriment of the bigger picture. Because now the median stock is breaking out above the old market tops from 2000, 2007.
Here’s Ari’s chart and comment:
Advance Is Broader than Many Realize
The message coming from our research is that the S&P 500 is in the midst of a healthy middle innings advance and investors should participate by buying cyclical sectors, like Technology, Financials, and Industrials. One key point we continue to stress is the broad-based nature of the rally. For instance, the Value Line Geometric index, an equal-weighted aggregate of approximately 1,700 companies, has broken above secular resistance dating back to the year 2000, and is accordingly positioned for additional gains, in our view. Rallies that include the participation of many stocks are typically the rallies that continue (or conversely, internal breadth typically narrows into a market top), and with the S&P 400 and S&P 600 indexes also making new highs with the S&P 500, we expect strength to continue."
http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/11/26/secular-bull-takes-flight
Selon ces métriques traditionnelles, on peut donc penser que ce marché est sain.
Autre "métrique" (beaucoup plus anecdotique je pense) qui interroge parfois : la durée de ce bull market, entamé en mars 2009, qui peut sembler excessive :
Article "Bull market is 3rd longest in U.S. history" (le lien ne fonctionne pas)
On en est actuellement (fin 2017) à grosso modo 3300 jours calendaires.
Ceci n'est évidemment pas un conseil d'investissement, juste des infos qui peuvent pourquoi pas faire avancer le schmilblick.
Dans le but d'élargir les perspectives pour juger de l'état du marché US, je me permets de compléter en recopiant une info de la file du jour (merci de me dire si tu préfères que je déplace dans un nouveau sujet):
Un aspect qui semble important et qu'on n'aborde pas souvent sur Andlil est celui de la profondeur ("breadth" en anglais) du marché. Concernant donc la participation dans le bull market US
"My friend Ari Wald (Oppenheimer) has a great chart illustrating the comeback we’re seeing for the median stock in the index. FAANG is not nearly as aberrant as you might think – every secular bull market has its generals, the stocks for which a majority of the gains accrue to. Why should the 2013-2017 advance have been different? Of course, the dominance in the FAANG components is still raging on, but this is not to the detriment of the bigger picture. Because now the median stock is breaking out above the old market tops from 2000, 2007.
Here’s Ari’s chart and comment:
Advance Is Broader than Many Realize
The message coming from our research is that the S&P 500 is in the midst of a healthy middle innings advance and investors should participate by buying cyclical sectors, like Technology, Financials, and Industrials. One key point we continue to stress is the broad-based nature of the rally. For instance, the Value Line Geometric index, an equal-weighted aggregate of approximately 1,700 companies, has broken above secular resistance dating back to the year 2000, and is accordingly positioned for additional gains, in our view. Rallies that include the participation of many stocks are typically the rallies that continue (or conversely, internal breadth typically narrows into a market top), and with the S&P 400 and S&P 600 indexes also making new highs with the S&P 500, we expect strength to continue."
http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/11/26/secular-bull-takes-flight
Selon ces métriques traditionnelles, on peut donc penser que ce marché est sain.
Autre "métrique" (beaucoup plus anecdotique je pense) qui interroge parfois : la durée de ce bull market, entamé en mars 2009, qui peut sembler excessive :
-
- Durée des marchés haussière en jours calendaires (2015)
On en est actuellement (fin 2017) à grosso modo 3300 jours calendaires.
Ceci n'est évidemment pas un conseil d'investissement, juste des infos qui peuvent pourquoi pas faire avancer le schmilblick.
Pareil j'ai été pas mal 
